Finanzas Públicas Locales

S&P ve riesgos en Gas Natural, sobretodo por su intención de entrar en el negocio de gas licuado. Además asevera que una mejora del rating a corto plazo es improbable.

La nota de prensa íntegra de S&P:

MADRID (Standard & Poor’s) Feb. 21, 2008–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it has lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on Spanish utility Gas Natural SDG, S.A. to ‘A’ from ‘A+’ following a review of the group’s 2008-2012 strategic plan. At the same time, the ‘A-1′ short-term corporate credit rating was affirmed. The outlook is stable.

“The downgrade reflects our view that Gas Natural’s strategic plan is not compatible with an ‘A+’ rating, due to an expected weakening in the group’s business and financial profile and credit protection measures,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Ana Nogales.

We also expect a gradual increase in the business risk of the group, with an expected reduction of the domestic regulated gas operations’ relative earnings contribution and an increased earnings share from higher risk operations.

Gas Natural aims to become an integrated international natural-gas and liquefied-natural-gas (LNG) operator. It plans to invest a significant €12.5 billion over the next five years, 55% in regulated gas distribution and 45% in upstream and midstream operations and electricity generation. The group’s business objective is to consolidate its existing gas and electricity operations in Spain, Italy, and Latin America, and to expand in new markets.

“These investments will increase the group’s diversification and enhance the gas/electricity value chain, but the operations involved are higher risk,” said Ms. Nogales.

The ratings on Gas Natural are based on the Spanish utility’s low-risk regulated domestic gas distribution activities, which are complemented by a leading competitive position in gas supply and a solid financial profile. These strengths are offset by management’s growth-oriented strategy and financial policy, and by the group’s nonregulated activities and material presence in Latin America.

“The stable outlook reflects our expectations that the group will focus on successfully implementing its business plan and that the credit metrics will remain at levels adequate for the ‘A’ rating,” said Ms. Nogales.

We could lower the ratings if, as a result of weaker operational performance, unfavorable regulatory changes, higher dividend payouts, or larger investments, the financial profile weakened and FFO to debt declined to less than 23%-24%; or if the contribution of total regulated operations and domestic regulated operations fell to less than 55% and 30%, respectively, of the group’s EBITDA.

An upgrade is unlikely in the short term.